January Market Update: What Western Suburbs Sellers Need to Know in 2026

Reviewed by Christina Penrose

If you're considering selling your home in Brisbane's western and northern suburbs this year, you're entering a market that's fundamentally different from what we saw just 12 months ago. The dynamics have shifted, and understanding these changes matters if you want to maximise your sales outcome.

Let's look at what the latest data from CoreLogic and Domain tells us about where we're heading in 2026 - and what it means for your selling strategy.

Brisbane's Strong 2025 Performance: The Foundation

Brisbane's property market delivered exceptional results through 2025. According to CoreLogic's Home Value Index released January 2nd, Brisbane house values rose consistently through the year, with the median house price reaching $1,131,329 by December 2025 - representing 14.5% annual growth.

This represents the strongest annual growth of any east coast capital. Perth and Darwin outperformed nationally, but Brisbane led Sydney and Melbourne by a significant margin. For western suburbs homeowners, this means your house has likely gained substantial value over the past year.

The October 2025 median house price sat at $1,087,197, adding $25,074 in monthly value gain with a 10.2% annual growth rate at that time. By December, this had climbed further to $1,131,329. If you've been watching your property's value climb, you're not imagining things. The market has been genuinely strong.

What's Driving Current Market Conditions

Several factors combined to create Brisbane's robust 2025 performance, and many of these drivers remain in place for 2026.

Supply constraints continue: Brisbane listings remain well below historical averages. Sellers aren't flooding the market, which means buyers face limited choice. This fundamental supply-demand imbalance supports pricing.

Interstate migration remains strong: Brisbane continues attracting buyers from Sydney and Melbourne seeking affordability and lifestyle. The western suburbs - with quality schools, established infrastructure, and relative value compared to southern capitals - remain highly attractive to these interstate buyers.

Rental market undersupply: Brisbane's vacancy rate sits at just 0.9%, indicating severe rental shortage. Existing rental property owners are holding tight, with very few landlords choosing to sell in this strong rental environment.

First Home Guarantee Scheme expansion: From January 1st, 2026, the federal government dramatically expanded the First Home Guarantee Scheme, removing the $125,000 income cap, eliminating the annual limit of 35,000 applicants, and substantially raising property price thresholds. This allows virtually all first-home buyers to enter the market with just a 5% deposit via a taxpayer-backed guarantee, injecting significant new buyer demand into entry-level and mid-range price segments.

Interest rate stability: The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 3.60% through late 2025 after three 0.25% cuts earlier in the year. This created borrowing certainty, encouraging buyers to commit rather than waiting on the sidelines.

2026 Forecasts: Moderation, Not Reversal

The consensus among major forecasters - Domain, the big four banks (Westpac, NAB, CBA, ANZ), and leading property analysts - points to continued growth in 2026, but at a more moderate pace than 2025's exceptional performance.

Domain's 2026 forecast predicts Brisbane house prices will rise 4-5%, with units potentially outperforming houses at 5-7% growth. Domain specifically notes Brisbane units are "forecast to record the strongest house and unit price growth" among capital cities for the coming year.

Bank forecasts are similarly positive:

Westpac: +4.5% for Brisbane property prices
NAB: +4.6% increase
ANZ: +4.3% growth
CBA: Similar moderate growth expectations

These projections reflect ongoing strong demand supported by limited housing supply and steady population growth. Brisbane remains well-positioned compared to other capitals, though the extraordinary growth rates of recent years will naturally moderate.

What This Means for Northern & Western Suburbs Sellers

If you're planning to sell in suburbs like Kenmore, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill, Brookfield, Fig Tree Pocket, Paddington, Bardon or Pullenvale, here's how to interpret these market conditions:

Timing considerations:

The first half of 2026 presents the strongest selling conditions. Buyer demand remains elevated, stock levels stay low, and the expanded First Home Guarantee injects fresh buyers into the market. Sellers listing in February through May position themselves to capture peak buyer activity before the mid-year moderation.

December and January traditionally offer strategic advantages - lower stock levels (December inventory typically runs at half of November volumes) combined with buyer urgency to settle before the school year begins. We're already seeing this pattern play out.

Price expectations:

Your house has likely appreciated 10-14% over the past year depending on your specific suburb and property characteristics. Brisbane's median house price climbed from approximately $1,087,197 in October to $1,131,329 by December 2025 - a gain of over $44,000 in just two months. The forecast 4-5% house price growth for 2026 represents healthy, sustainable appreciation rather than the exceptional gains of recent years.

Set realistic expectations. Houses priced correctly for current market conditions sell quickly. Houses priced for 2025's peak growth rates sit longer and ultimately achieve less. With the median house now exceeding $1.1 million, buyers are increasingly discerning about value.

Competition dynamics:

Supply remains constrained. You're not competing against dozens of similar properties - you're offering buyers limited choice in a market where they're actively seeking property. This seller-favourable dynamic continues through at least the first half of 2026.

However, buyers are increasingly discerning. They understand market fundamentals and won't overpay. Quality presentation, accurate pricing, and strong marketing differentiate properties that sell quickly from those that linger.

Rental Market Strength: Investor Demand Remains High

If you're selling to investors or concerned about market depth beyond owner-occupiers, Brisbane's rental market provides reassurance.

CoreLogic's research director Tim Lawless notes the national vacancy rate holds at 1.2%, but Brisbane's 0.9% vacancy rate indicates particularly tight conditions. Monthly rents dipped slightly (-0.2%) in recent months but remain 3.8% higher year-on-year. Note that rental statistics typically combine all property types - houses, units, and townhouses - reflecting the overall rental market.

Domain forecasts rents will rise approximately 4% in Brisbane during 2026, reflecting ongoing pressure on available rental properties. This rental market strength maintains investor interest in purchasing property, providing additional buyer depth beyond owner-occupiers.

Median apartment rents are forecast to grow 24% between 2025 and 2030 across Australian capital cities according to international property consultancy CBRE. For Brisbane specifically, CBRE estimates apartment delivery will average 4,600 per annum through 2030, whilst demand for housing stock will average 16,000 per annum - a persistent supply shortfall that supports both capital values and rental returns across all property types.

Interest Rates: The Critical Variable

The Reserve Bank's approach to interest rates represents the major unknown factor for 2026. After three cuts in 2025, the RBA held rates at 3.60% through late 2025 as inflation proved stickier than anticipated.

The big four banks offer divergent predictions:

CBA expects no further cuts, maintaining 3.60% through 2026
Westpac forecasts cuts in May and August 2026, reaching 3.10% by year-end
NAB predicts a single cut in May 2026 to 3.35%
ANZ anticipates a cut in February 2026 to 3.35%

Further rate cuts would boost buyer borrowing capacity and likely accelerate property price growth. If rates hold at 3.60%, growth continues but remains in the moderate 4-5% range rather than accelerating.

For sellers, this uncertainty reinforces the importance of listing when you're ready rather than attempting to time rate decisions. The market doesn't wait for perfect conditions—properties sell in all interest rate environments.

Western Suburbs Positioning: Where Demand Concentrates

The western suburbs maintain particular appeal within Brisbane's property market due to specific characteristics that attract both owner-occupiers and investors.

Education infrastructure: Access to quality schools - including Brisbane Boys' College, Kenmore State High School, Indooroopilly State High School, and proximity to the University of Queensland—drives family buyer demand. Education-focused buyers prioritise location over minor property features, supporting values in these catchment areas.

Established infrastructure: The western suburbs offer mature infrastructure - shopping centres (Indooroopilly Shopping Centre, Kenmore Village), medical facilities, cafés, restaurants, and recreational amenities. This appeals to downsizers, families, and professionals equally.

Lifestyle appeal: The leafy, established character of suburbs like Chapel Hill, Brookfield, and Pullenvale provides a semi-rural lifestyle within 15 kilometres of the CBD. This lifestyle positioning attracts premium pricing for well-presented properties.

Transport connectivity: Whilst Cross River Rail and Brisbane Metro improvements primarily benefit inner-city connectivity, the western suburbs maintain strong road infrastructure access to the CBD, universities, and major employment hubs.

Domain's analysis specifically identifies the western suburbs - Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill, Kenmore—as areas where "excellent schools, leafy streets, and family appeal continue to drive strong demand."

Units vs Houses: Different Growth Trajectories

Domain forecasts Brisbane units will outperform houses in 2026, with unit growth at 5-7% compared to 4-5% for houses. This reflects buyer searches for affordability as house prices stretch borrowing capacity.

To put this in perspective: Brisbane's median house price reached $1,131,329 in December 2025, whilst the median unit price sat at $807,161. The substantial price difference - over $324,000 - drives increasing numbers of buyers toward units and townhouses as affordability becomes a constraint.

For western suburbs sellers, this matters primarily if you're selling units or townhouses. Unit buyers - often first-home buyers, downsizers, or investors—remain active and potentially more numerous than house buyers as affordability constraints tighten.

Houses in premium western suburbs locations maintain their appeal due to scarcity (limited land for new housing), school catchments, and lifestyle factors. The median house price over $1.1 million represents significant value that's been built through years of growth. However, expect units to sell more quickly relative to houses as 2026 progresses, particularly in the second half of the year when affordability pressures intensify.

What Could Disrupt These Forecasts

Property market forecasts represent informed predictions, not certainties. Several factors could alter the trajectory:

Higher inflation: If inflation remains elevated, the RBA might hold rates at 3.60% longer than anticipated or potentially increase rates. This would dampen buyer borrowing capacity and slow price growth.

Economic downturn: Brisbane's strong economic fundamentals—driven by resources, population growth, and infrastructure investment—support the property market. An unexpected economic shock would change these dynamics.

Supply surge: Whilst new dwelling approvals increased through 2025, Brisbane faces years of undersupply. A dramatic acceleration in new housing delivery would ease price pressure, though this seems unlikely given construction industry capacity constraints.

Migration changes: Interstate migration from Sydney and Melbourne supports Brisbane demand. Policy changes affecting migration or economic conditions in southern capitals could alter these patterns.

These represent tail risks rather than base-case scenarios. The most probable path remains moderate growth through 2026 with performance varying by price band and suburb.

Selling Strategy for 2026 Market Conditions

Understanding market forecasts matters only if you translate that knowledge into effective selling strategy.

Price accurately from day one: With growth moderating from 2025's exceptional levels, properties must be priced for current market conditions, not recent historical growth. Buyers research comparables and understand market dynamics. Overpricing delays sales and ultimately achieves less.

Present impeccably: Buyer standards remain high. Professional styling, staging, and presentation distinguish your property from alternatives. This investment typically returns 5-10 times the cost through improved sale results.

Market comprehensively: Reaching qualified buyers requires multi-channel marketing—quality photography, detailed online listings, social media promotion, and database marketing to registered buyers. Single-channel approaches miss potential buyers.

Leverage seasonal timing: If your circumstances allow flexibility, listing in late January through May captures peak buyer activity before mid-year moderation. Alternatively, late November through December offers lower stock competition.

Work with local expertise: Western suburbs buyer preferences, pricing nuances, and marketing strategies vary between Kenmore, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill, and surrounding suburbs. Local market knowledge matters significantly.

Rental Vacancy Implications for Vendors

Brisbane's 0.9% rental vacancy rate - among the tightest nationally - creates specific implications for vendors, particularly those considering selling investment properties or whose buyers might include investors.

This extreme rental shortage means:

Investment properties sell readily: Investors seeking rental yield and capital growth actively purchase Brisbane property. Your potential buyer pool includes both owner-occupiers and investors, increasing market depth.

Vacant possession isn't always preferred: Some buyers actually prefer purchasing tenanted properties with established rental income. Don't assume you must vacate the property before listing if you have quality tenants in place.

Rental income projections strengthen appeals: For properties with investment appeal, documented rental history and conservative rental yield projections support buyer decision-making and potentially justify stronger pricing.

Positioning Your Property in the Current Market

Every suburb in Brisbane's western corridor has experienced value growth, but not uniformly. Properties that outperform share common characteristics:

Desirable locations within suburbs: North-facing homes, elevated positions with views, proximity to parks or schools, and quiet streets command premiums. These location factors matter increasingly as growth moderates.

Modern presentation or renovation quality: Buyers increasingly expect quality finishes. Properties requiring significant renovation compete on price more than lifestyle. Updated kitchens, bathrooms, and contemporary styling appeal broadly.

Functional layouts: Open-plan living, separation between living and sleeping areas, and good indoor-outdoor flow suit contemporary buyer preferences. Properties with awkward layouts face pricing constraints.

Low-maintenance appeal: Both downsizers and busy families prefer manageable properties. Large blocks requiring weekend labour don't appeal universally. Consider if landscaping modifications might broaden appeal.

Your Next Steps

Market data and forecasts provide context, but your specific property's value and optimal selling strategy depend on individual characteristics—location, condition, size, layout, and current market competition.

The western suburbs property market enters 2026 from a position of strength. Values have grown substantially, buyer demand remains solid, and supply constraints continue supporting prices. The moderation in growth rates from 2025's exceptional performance represents a return to sustainable appreciation rather than market weakness.

If you're considering selling in 2026:

Get a current market appraisal: Your property's value reflects recent comparable sales in your specific suburb and street. We provide honest, data-driven appraisals based on actual market evidence - not optimistic figures designed to win your listing.

Understand your competition: How many similar properties are currently listed in your area? What's their pricing? How long have they been on the market? This competitive context informs your strategy.

Plan your timeline: Selling a home requires preparation—decluttering, any minor repairs or updates, styling, photography, and marketing campaign development. Beginning conversations now allows optimal timing for market entry.

Consider seasonal factors: The first half of 2026 offers the strongest selling conditions according to Domain's two-phase forecast. If your circumstances permit listing in this window, you'll position yourself advantageously.

Why Market Knowledge Matters

We've operated in Brisbane's western suburbs for 60 years. We watched the 2025 growth surge, we understand the transition to 2026's more moderate environment, and we know how to position properties for optimal results in shifting market conditions.

The difference between selling well and selling exceptionally often comes down to accurate pricing, strategic timing, and comprehensive marketing. These elements require local market expertise, current data interpretation, and honestly assessing your property's competitive position.

Market forecasts provide direction. Local expertise delivers results.

Ready to Discuss Your Options?

Whether you're planning to list immediately, considering your options for later in 2026, or simply curious about your property's current value, we're here to provide honest guidance based on the latest market data and our decades of experience in the western suburbs.

Contact us for a free property appraisal and conversation about how 2026 market conditions affect your selling situation.

Grant and Christina Penrose
Penrose Real Estate
Results Built From Trust

Sources:

This article provides a market overview and general guidance. Individual property values and optimal selling strategies depend on specific property characteristics and current market conditions. Contact us for personalised advice based on your circumstances.